Nate Silver: Hillary Is 'One State Away' From Losing the Electoral College

Nate Silver: Hillary Is 'One State Away' From Losing the Electoral College

Nate Silver: Hillary Is 'One State Away' From Losing the Electoral College

Even as the FiveThirtyEight model saw three critical states - Florida, North Carolina and Nevada - flip from red to the blue on Monday night based on a flurry of final polls, Silver coolly tweeted that "you shouldn't pay much attention" to predictions nearly as likely to go one way as the other.

The polls-plus forecast puts Clinton at 302 electoral votes to Trump's 235.

In one such story, the "NDTV" quoted a renowned American pollster Nate Silver who claimed that Hillary was just one state away from losing the electoral college. Silver predicted that, too.

On election day in 2012, Silver gave Barack Obama a 90.9% chance of winning reelection.

Same with the popular vote.

Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie Reportedly Reach a Custody Agreement
Rumors previously swirled that he wouldn't be participating in any press for the movie because of his high-profile split. Angelina Jolie may or may not have been surprised by Pitt's motion to gain custody of their children.

The last of the polls released Monday - and the only one to feature data through November 7 - came from Google Consumer Surveys and showed a five-percentage point lead for Trump with a margin or error of 2.7 percentage points.

This raises a pertinent question. According to Silver's model, Clinton has not trailed since June and she remains the heavy favorite in the 2016 presidential election. It collected data from 1,350 Florida voters, and has a "B" rating from Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight. Paddy Power quoted odds of 2 to 9, giving her an 82 percent chance of victory.

And Silver, once bitten, is twice shy. So in some sense, it's a deceptively large or small lead for Clinton in some ways whereas Obama had a bigger lead electorally than you'd thing. "That's up from a 65 percent chance on Sunday night, so Clinton has had a good run in the polls in the final days of the campaign".

But I don't fault Silver for his caution. It's the second of three of Monday's last-minute guesses that sees the results going in favor of Trump, by four percentage points over Clinton. That's because there's a lot of human caprice and whim in electoral behavior that can't always be explained or predicted with scientific precision. In the largest one, with a massive sample size of 30,145 likely voters, she was ahead by seven percentage points, according to NBCNews/SM data. The model's prediction was announced on March 7.

Later, he started assembling predictions about voting results in the primaries and has come to predict a win for Hillary Clinton. Various experts also suggested that Trump hadn't done enough in the state leading up to the election to really gain the support of the people. I had more confidence in Republican voters - that they wouldn't nominate such a flawed and hateful candidate - than turned out to be warranted. Grim basically accused Silver of applying an ad hoc correction to his polling model so that it would show a tighter race.